THESIS IDEAS!

10 Templates Before You Touch The Buy Button

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What is a thesis? — เหตุผลที่ทำให้คุณกล้าลงเงิน 1-2 บรรทัด. ถ้าเขียนไม่ออก = ไม่มี edge = ไม่เทรด.
Good thesis ตอบ 3 ข้อ: (1) why this stock, (2) why now, (3) which direction + how much.
Quick jump:
  1. Earnings Beat Setup — long calls before report
  2. Post-Earnings IV Crush Fade — short premium after
  3. FDA / Binary Event — lottery ticket play
  4. Product Launch Momentum — Apple / Tesla style
  5. Technical Breakout — resistance break with volume
  6. Oversold Bounce — mean reversion play
  7. Fed / Macro Catalyst — rate decision, CPI, jobs
  8. Sector Rotation — money flows in
  9. Unusual Options Activity — smart money signal
  10. Short Squeeze Setup — high SI + catalyst

1. Earnings Beat Setup

Direction: Long Instrument: Calls / Call spread Risk: High Timeframe: 1-3 weeks
Thesis (1-2 lines) "[TICKER] มี momentum + revenue guidance ดี + analyst upgrades ก่อน earnings → expect beat + raise → +5-10% move within 1 week."
Catalyst What: Q[X] earnings release
When: earnings date (after-hours หรือ pre-market)
Pre-conditions to confirm:
[Y] Last 4 quarters beat EPS?
[Y] Stock above 50-day MA?
[Y] Sector momentum positive?
[!] IV Rank > 70? → SKIP, IV crush ฆ่าคุณ
Invalidation • Pre-earnings guidance cut from peers in sector
• Stock breaks below 20-day MA before report
• Unusual put activity = insider hedging

2. Post-Earnings IV Crush Fade

Direction: Neutral Instrument: Iron condor / Short strangle Risk: Medium Timeframe: 1-2 weeks
Thesis (1-2 lines) "Earnings ผ่านแล้ว, no major surprise → IV จะ crush from 80% → 35% → sell premium ขาย vol ก่อนที่ price move out of range."
Catalyst What: IV mean reversion + theta decay
When: 1-2 days after earnings (after price digests result)
Pre-conditions to confirm:
[Y] IV Rank ก่อนเทรด > 50?
[Y] Earnings ไม่มี surprise (price อยู่ใน expected move)?
[Y] Stock ไม่ใช่ meme / GME style chaos?
[Y] Liquid options (tight spread)?
Invalidation • Price breaks expected move boundary
• Follow-up news (guidance cut, downgrade)
• IV ไม่ลด = วันถัดมา = market expects more volatility

3. FDA / Binary Event Lottery

Direction: Long / Spread Instrument: OTM calls (small size) Risk: Very High Timeframe: 1-30 days
Thesis (1-2 lines) "[TICKER] รอ FDA decision — phase 3 data ดี + previous trials positive → approval → +50-200% move. Risk = -100% premium ถ้า reject."
Catalyst What: PDUFA date / FDA AdCom meeting
When: วันที่ระบุชัดเจน (check FDA calendar)
Pre-conditions to confirm:
[Y] Position size = เงินที่พร้อมขาดทุน 100%?
[Y] Phase 3 data + endpoint hit?
[Y] No FDA black box / clinical hold history?
[!] ห้ามใส่หนัก — lottery ticket only. 0.5-1% portfolio max.
Invalidation • FDA delays decision (extends PDUFA)
• AdCom recommends against approval
• Competitor gets approved first (kills market)

4. Product Launch Momentum

Direction: Long Instrument: Calls / Call diagonal Risk: Medium Timeframe: 2-6 weeks
Thesis (1-2 lines) "AAPL iPhone 16 launch + strong pre-orders + Wall Street upgrades → positive sentiment carries 2-4 weeks → +3-7% drift up."
Catalyst What: Event keynote / launch day / shipping day
When: announcement date + 1-2 week halo period
Pre-conditions to confirm:
[Y] Pre-order / wait time data ดี?
[Y] Supply chain ไม่มีปัญหา (no shortages)?
[Y] Analyst price target raised?
[Y] Stock not extended (RSI < 70)?
Invalidation • Supply issues / shipping delays announced
• Initial reviews mixed / negative
• Macro tape break (SPY -2%+) → risk off, kill story stocks

5. Technical Breakout

Direction: Long Instrument: Calls / Stock + stop Risk: Medium Timeframe: 1-4 weeks
Thesis (1-2 lines) "[TICKER] consolidates 6 weeks at $X resistance → breaks above with 2x avg volume → measured move target +8-12% within 3 weeks."
Catalyst What: Volume confirmation on breakout candle
When: วันที่ breakout เกิด (intraday confirm + EOD close above)
Pre-conditions to confirm:
[Y] Volume > 1.5x 20-day avg?
[Y] Close ABOVE resistance (not just intraday wick)?
[Y] SPY / sector not breaking down?
[Y] Stop level defined (below breakout candle low)?
Invalidation • Close back below breakout level = failed breakout, exit
• Volume dries up next 2 days → no follow-through
• Bull trap pattern (reverse hammer at resistance)

6. Oversold Bounce / Mean Reversion

Direction: Long Instrument: Stock / Bull put spread Risk: Medium Timeframe: 3-10 days
Thesis (1-2 lines) "[TICKER] sold off -15% in 5 days, no fundamental break → RSI < 30 + at 200MA support → bounce +5-8% in 1-2 weeks."
Catalyst What: Technical oversold + key support hold
When: Reversal candle (hammer / engulfing) at support
Pre-conditions to confirm:
[Y] Selloff คือ market-wide (ไม่ใช่ single-stock disaster)?
[Y] RSI < 30?
[Y] At identifiable support (MA, prior low, fib)?
[Y] Reversal candle confirmed?
Invalidation • Close below support = no bounce, exit immediately
• News-driven selloff (downgrade, lawsuit, fraud) → not mean reversion
• Catching a falling knife — ถ้าไม่มี reversal candle = wait

7. Fed / Macro Catalyst

Direction: Long or Short Instrument: SPY / QQQ options Risk: High Timeframe: 1-5 days
Thesis (1-2 lines) "Fed meeting Wed 2pm — market pricing rate cut. ถ้า powell dovish → SPY +1-2%. Hedge with put spread ถ้า hawkish."
Catalyst What: FOMC decision / Powell press conference / CPI / NFP
When: ระบุเวลาแน่ชัด (2pm ET Fed, 8:30am CPI/NFP)
Pre-conditions to confirm:
[Y] Know consensus estimate (dot plot, CPI forecast)?
[Y] Position sized small (binary outcome)?
[Y] Have exit plan ทั้ง 2 ทาง?
[!] ห้าม overleverage — FOMC moves can be brutal
Invalidation • Powell pivots tone in press conference (often opposite of statement)
• Data revision changes narrative
• Surprise data dump 30 min before (leaked / early release)

8. Sector Rotation Play

Direction: Long Instrument: Sector ETF / Top names Risk: Low-Medium Timeframe: 2-8 weeks
Thesis (1-2 lines) "Money rotating from growth → value. XLF outperforming SPY 4 weeks. Sector breadth > 70% above 50MA → ride trend until breadth weakens."
Catalyst What: Sector relative strength flip + breadth confirmation
When: ongoing trend — เข้าได้ตอน pullback to 20MA
Pre-conditions to confirm:
[Y] Sector ETF outperforming SPY 4+ weeks?
[Y] > 60% of sector stocks above 50MA?
[Y] Fundamentals support rotation (earnings, yield, macro)?
[Y] Top 3 names not overextended?
Invalidation • Sector breadth drops < 50% above 50MA
• Relative strength flip back to other sector
• Macro narrative change (rate path, recession data)

9. Unusual Options Activity

Direction: Follow flow Instrument: Match the sweep Risk: High Timeframe: 1-4 weeks
Thesis (1-2 lines) "[TICKER] sees 50,000 OTM call sweep @ ask, 10x avg vol, expires 2 weeks out → informed buyer expects move → follow with smaller size."
Catalyst What: Large block / sweep order detected
When: intraday detection → enter within 1-2 hours
Pre-conditions to confirm:
[Y] Volume > 5x OI on that strike?
[Y] Trade at ask (not bid) = aggressive buyer?
[Y] Sweep across multiple exchanges (not single block)?
[!] Could be hedge / spread leg — never 100% sure
Invalidation • Same strike sees offsetting flow next day = was a spread
• Stock doesn't move within 1 week = signal stale
• News drops opposite direction = false signal

10. Short Squeeze Setup

Direction: Long Instrument: Calls / Stock Risk: Very High Timeframe: 1-3 weeks
Thesis (1-2 lines) "[TICKER] short interest 30%+ + days to cover > 5 + positive catalyst incoming → shorts forced to cover → +30-100% squeeze possible."
Catalyst What: Earnings beat / contract win / positive news + high SI
When: catalyst date OR breakout above key level
Pre-conditions to confirm:
[Y] Short interest > 20% of float?
[Y] Days to cover > 3?
[Y] Float < 100M shares (smaller = easier to squeeze)?
[Y] Positive catalyst confirmed (not just hope)?
[!] Squeezes fade fast — have hard exit plan
Invalidation • Catalyst fails to materialize
• Short interest drops significantly (shorts already covered)
• Volume dries up after initial pop = squeeze done

How To Write A Good Thesis

  1. Be specific. "AAPL going up" = not a thesis. "AAPL +5% to $230 within 2 weeks driven by iPhone 16 pre-orders" = thesis.
  2. Name the catalyst with a date. "Soon" หรือ "eventually" = ไม่ใช่ catalyst. Catalyst ต้องมีวัน.
  3. Include the move size. ถ้าไม่รู้ว่าหวัง move กี่ %, ไม่รู้ว่า exit ที่ไหน → กลายเป็น hope trade.
  4. Define invalidation upfront. "ถ้าเห็น X = ผิด, exit." — เขียนก่อนเปิด position. ห้ามเปลี่ยนหลัง.
  5. Match instrument to thesis. Binary event → long premium. Low-vol drift → sell premium / spreads. ห้าม buy ATM calls หวัง drift.
  6. Size for the worst case. ถ้า thesis ผิด, คุณจะขาดทุนเท่าไหร่? คำตอบนี้ต้อง < 2% ของ portfolio.
  7. One thesis, one trade. ถ้ามี 2 reasons unrelated → ทำ 2 trades. ห้ามใช้ thesis A เพื่อ justify holding trade B.
  8. Write it BEFORE you enter. Thesis ที่เขียนหลังเข้า = rationalization, ไม่ใช่ analysis.
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